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| Application of Verhulst Model in Landslide Prediction and Prediction |
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Received:November 02, 2020
Revised:November 25, 2020
Accepted:December 16, 2020
Published Online:October 11, 2021
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| DOI： |
| KeyWord:landslide,Forecast,Verhulst;model,Verhulst;inverse function;model, improve |
| Author | Institution |
| Huang Jing-tao |
School of water resources and environmental engineering,east China institute of technology |
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| Abstract: |
| Verhulst model has been widely used in landslide forecasting since it was proposed.The traditional Verhulst model and Verhulst inverse function model have been verified in many well-known landslide data at home and abroad. Compared with the traditional Verhulst model, the prediction effect is better.However, with the deepening of the research, it is found that both of the two traditional models have false positives, which are improved and innovated continuously.The Verhulst model is optimized and improved in initial value, background value, criterion, operation method and other aspects, while the Verhulst inverse function model is simply optimized in initial conditions and calculation method.According to the current optimized and improved models, the gray Markov Vehrulst dynamic model has the highest prediction accuracy and the strongest applicability in the Verhulst model.However, the improvement of Verhulst inverse function model is relatively undeveloped, and its applicability and prediction accuracy need to be considered. |
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