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| Study on total carbon emissions and peak carbon pathways in Xinjiang uygur autonomous region based on scenario analysis |
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Received:December 27, 2024
Revised:March 24, 2025
Accepted:April 03, 2025
Published Online:April 30, 2026
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| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1005-7854.2025.06.024 |
| KeyWord:Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region;peak carbon emissions;STIRPAT model;ridge regression analysis;scenario analysis. |
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| 1.State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co. Ltd., Urumqi 830017, China;2.Information and Communication Company of State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Company Limited, Urumqi 830002, China;3.School of Electrical Engineering, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830047, China |
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| Abstract: |
| As an important energy base in China, it is crucial for China's low-carbon and green development to carry out research on carbon emission prediction and peaking time, and to proactively explore carbon peaking paths in Xinjiang. This paper investigates the total carbon emissions and carbon peaking path in Xinjiang, utilizing scenario analysis. The study utilizes the STIRPAT model, in conjunction with data from 2000 to 2020, to predict the total carbon emissions and the time at which these emissions will reach their peak. Xinjiang ranks among the highest carbon emissions nationwide, with the power and steel industries being the primary sources emissions. The study employs scenario analysis to explore the impact of alternative energy policies on carbon emissions, with the overarching objective being the optimization of the energy structure, the promotion of new energy sources, and the facilitation of the realization of the "3060 double-carbon" target. The study finds that energy transformation and structural adjustment have considerable potential to reduce carbon emissions, with active industrial upgrading reducing peak carbon emissions by 6×105 t compared with the baseline development scenario. This provides a positive reference point for Xinjiang as it formulates reasonable energy policies and economic development planning. |
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